Inflation comes in below forecasts but economists warn of rises to come

With inflation hitting the Bank of England’s target of 2% the pressure to raise interest rates will dissipate in the short term.

Inflation has cooled slightly in the UK, hitting 2% in June compared with a year ago, down from 2.5% in July.

The 2% level was below economists’ expectations but analysts warn that the post-pandemic boom could continue to hit prices.

However, with inflation hitting the Bank of England’s target of 2% the pressure to raise interest rates will dissipate – at least in the short term.

Douglas Grant, Director of Conister comments: “Inflation remains above the Bank of England’s 2% target but the UK isn’t currently experiencing runaway inflation like in the US. This is not the say that rates won’t pick up over the coming months as more of the pandemic cost burden is passed onto consumers but as per UK GDP data last week, we are seeing more encouragement for the future of the UK economy. One area of concern, however, is current business default levels caused by the ongoing impact of the pandemic and we must acknowledge that the UK’s business debt burden has ballooned to unprecedented levels, and unfortunately this has already created a relentless flow of weak zombie-like companies falling off a loan default cliff. It is imperative that we support sectors and businesses that are strong and nimble enough to adapt to the new economy and therefore continue contributing to its growth.  

“We also believe that the introduction of the Recovery Loan Scheme will act as a second support system for those businesses currently struggling but with long-term growth potential. Indeed, we have been pleased to see the Government look beyond the obviously more resilient business sectors and introduce the RLS which can support those businesses that have been mostly negatively impacted by Covid-19, such as the hospitality and leisure sectors. Conister will continue to do all it can, working alongside the Government and traditional lenders, to support businesses.  

“At Conister we have delivered upon all of our initial objectives. We have lent our full CBILS and BBLS allocation and have applications that we hope can be accredited under the RLS. We will focus on lending this to robust businesses in all sectors that we believe will thrive in the future. Conister will continue to do all it can, working alongside the Government and traditional lenders, to support British businesses.”